Rand gains ground against the greenback

Rand gains ground against the greenback


DURBAN – The rand inched firmer against a muted dollar amid an absence of local trade direction, according to NKC Research.

Meanwhile, the US calendar is especially thin for much of this week but improves a bit on Thursday, with some releases including jobless claims due. In turn, the Fed is in the middle of the blackout period surrounding next week’s (April 27 and 28) FOMC meeting, keeping Fed speakers sidelined.

As for the broader risk asset class, after weathering the Q1 discount rate shock, we expect risk assets to further price in improving growth expectations.

NKC Research also expects a rise in yields to resume but in a relatively non-disruptive manner. The spillovers from China’s credit expansion are expected to last well into Q3 and power the industrial recovery, but we expect the US recovery will increasingly take over as the main impetus in the global industrial cycle.

As a result, the global industrial expansion could last longer than the mini cycles of the 2010s. Against this backdrop, rotation trades and the related beneficiaries such as EM bonds – including SAGBs – should maintain their upward march as broadening vaccinations in Europe and major EMs bring back the “reopening” trade to investors’ radar.

At the close of local trade, the rand quoted 0.11 percent stronger, at R14.24/$, after trading in the range of R14.18/$ to R14.33/$. The rand traded stronger overnight.

South African bourse

The JSE All Share (-0.88 percent) ended lower yesterday, dragged by losses in large technology (-2.02 percent) and industrial (-1.16 percent) stocks. In the overall emerging market sphere, the MSCI Emerging Market Index (0.01 percent) traded lower.

Brent crude oil

The Brent oil price inched up on Monday, thanks to a softer US dollar, but concerns of an increase in global coronavirus cases kept a lid on gains. At the close of local trade, benchmark Brent crude futures quoted 0.14 percent higher, at $66.65pb. Crude prices traded higher during Asian trade this morning.


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